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Using the GTAP Model to Simulate Second Quarter Real GDP

According to the advance GDP release (4/29/20), the U.S. economy contracted by 4.8 percent during the first quarter of 2020. Though not as bad as the 8.4 percent quarterly decline that occurred during the Great Recession, performance in the second quarter could be even worse.

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U.S. Trade Picture in 2015–Improvements in Petroleum Mask Weakness Elsewhere

Growing U.S. oil and gas production and lower oil prices have reshaped U.S. petroleum trade. Although the United States still runs a deficit, the average monthly trade deficit through August 2015 is only $7.6 billion, compared to $35.1 billion through August 2008. This improvement is largely driven by imports.

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Intl Economics Research Travis Pope Intl Economics Research Travis Pope

The Trans-Pacific Partnership: Many Hurdles Remain

In addition to the participation of two of the globe’s three largest economies, the United States and Japan, the pact could eventually include South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and the Philippines, though these countries are not directly involved in the current negotiations. China, the elephant in the room for any Pacific trade pact, is not a party to the TPP talks and has only hinted interest, according to the Obama administration.

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Yuan Shock–The Export Angle

There is a tendency to view China’s 1.9 percent devaluation of the Yuan on August 11 through the lens of the U.S. dollar. After all, the Yuan has been fixed or closely linked to the greenback for decades, and Washington has been among the most vocal critics of China’s currency policy. However, currency and trade data suggest that China’s devaluation has more to do with the other currencies.

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Intl Economics Research Brian Westenbroek Intl Economics Research Brian Westenbroek

IMF Lowers WEO Projections

The International Monetary Fund continues to revise its global growth projections downward but it is having trouble keeping up with a steady stream of bad news. In October, the Fund released its latest edition of the World Economic Outlook, a biannual survey of the global economy. In this installment, the authors describe a persistently “uneven global recovery.”

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